Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
