Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
