1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Can results sometimes deceive? That is the question. Villa's run of victories persisted with a win over Manchester United, accompanied by the persistent questions. Statistically, they were inferior by multiple metrics – a lower shot count (12-15), reduced ball control (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). As usual, the victory was tightly contested. As usual, the xG metric painted a different picture: according to data United edged it 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are decided on the pitch, not on spreadsheets. They are won by cohesive units, astute coaching and moments of magic – and Villa boast the complete package. Villa's emerging star could be considered their sole standout, but he is performing with festive regularity. The Spanish tactician is crafty, experienced, streets ahead of the United boss. Should Rogers have benefited from Leny Yoro’s naivety, that was probably because Emery had spotted that Yoro was playing out of position, and instructed his winger to start wide, move infield and cause him problems. Individual brilliance and coaching, in perfect harmony.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 on 25 October, their fans rediscovered hope. They had won three league games consecutively for the first time under Ruben Amorim. They had risen to fourth. And the wins were all good ones – over Brighton (a traditionally tricky opponent), Liverpool (on the road!) and Sunderland (at home, against a promoted club, but still – a routine shutout). Their keeper provided stability, their forward line sparked and there was a positive mood. But then United returned to poor form. In a run of eight matches, a mere pair of successes, six missed opportunities. Against Aston Villa they were superior for large periods without ever looking like winning. Yes, their forward scored a good goal, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to important midfielders), but they were punished for defensive errors. Following over a year in England, the coach continues to struggle with how to claim three points.
3. Arsenal Grind Out a Vital Victory
It was an 8pm kick-off on the Saturday before Christmas but a glaring absence of finesse in the attacking areas made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue was predictable with offensive players absent, and the experienced winger struggling to lift an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is astonishing that the Toffees were in fifth place in the table not long ago given they have played the entire season without a decent striker. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he savoured a deserved win and ascending to the summit of the table, the flaw should be equally concerning given their title aspirations in the Premier League. He stated that winning margins will inevitably be more emphatic with hard work and perseverance. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Pep's Christmas Weight Watch at City
On Christmas Day the Catalan coach will monitor the scales to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. Guardiola said the team wanted to take a day off after their 3-0 triumph but he refused because the performance was insufficient. So it's recovery, sessions for the fringe men, and following a short break, then 48 hours of preparation for the Nottingham Forest game. The manager outlined how improvements can be made. “I excel at analyzing what happens in the game, identifying weaknesses – if the players were in the right areas, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family for celebrations. I'll visit Barcelona – it's a great city, the food is excellent.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, like a statement. This was exactly what Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to unlock stubborn defences with his clever positioning and composure, and the calmness with which he finished from a neat pass boded superbly. So the scene of his substitution immediately, the victim of a rash challenge, was a major worry for the Dutch coach and a shame for any neutral who would like to see a top-class forward reach his peak again. Reports suggest Isak has picked up a serious leg injury and he likely faces a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with Liverpool having snuck up on the top four, putting together a six-game unbeaten run featuring Isak’s first Premier League goals in their colours. Their prospects appear tied up with those of their prize asset.
6. A Contentious Call Saves Chelsea
Managers often lament contentious refereeing decisions as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they want to keep private. The numerous points Newcastle have dropped from winning positions this season seems a case in point. Their manager certainly did not seem overly keen to mention that unfortunate habit following his side’s collapse from a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet the Magpies' boss was surely right to question a decision made by the referee not to award his team a penalty following a blatant body check on the England international. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have swung the momentum. Was the decision to offer the Chelsea defender the leeway informed by past incidents for being expert at winning penalties and sometimes simulating? The take of a former England striker was revealing. “He sees the challenge coming,” was the analysis. “He's prepared for the impact and he braces for it. I think he’s ready to go down. But the strength of the challenge there … it's more than just defending.”
7. Statistical Doom for Struggling Wolves
Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled joy for their manager. Rather than celebrate, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he started his career with. “A large chunk of my life was here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; statistical models state – perhaps generously – their probability of going down at virtually certain, leaving only pride at stake beyond pride. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
